Pandemic and Social Unrest

Severe Respiratory Infections

Pandemics and World Economy

The enormity of Spanish Flu of 1918 has not been overshadowed yet. Most of the evidence indicates that the economic effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic were short-term. Many businesses, especially those in the service and entertainment industries, suffered double-digit losses in revenue. Other businesses that specialized in health care products experienced an increase in revenues.

In the current crisis too, employment has been impacted directly as a result of lockdowns and 195 million full-time workers (assuming a 48-hour working week) have lost their jobs worldwide. The sectors most at risk include accommodation and food services, manufacturing, retail, business and administrative activities. In India, with a share of almost 90 per cent of people working in the informal economy, about 400 million workers in the informal economy are at risk of falling deeper into poverty during the crisis. Current lockdown measures in India, which are at the high end of the University of Oxford’s COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index, have impacted these workers significantly, forcing many of them to return to rural areas.

Consequently there is a likelihood of a two fold increase in BPL figures of India to about 62 Crores, widening the chasm of inequality. As per another estimate, over 140 million people could fall into extreme poverty the world over in 2020 — an increase of 20% from present levels. This in turn would drive up food insecurity. As per one mathematical model, following a pandemic, the natural rate of interest declines for decades thereafter, reaching its nadir in about 20 years. This speaks of the disproportionate effects on the labor force relative to land (and later capital) that pandemics had throughout centuries.

Social Unrest

Unemployment has almost doubled to around 14.5% in India and approx 13.5 Crore jobs have been lost. While unlock phase one has started, industry is complaining about shortage of labour due to their exodus. Their early return is unlikely as top five states contributing to GDP also figure in top five states with max COVID-19 cases, Maharashtra being on the top in both. With nothing more to lose, this segment of the population is prone to indulge in creating unrest and riots. Lets examine the past a bit.

In the past pandemics, Cholera riots took place in Europe and USA in the 19 ^th century and Plague riots have taken place against authorities enforcing rules and doctors. Both led to conspiracies and myths of physicians and the state intentionally poisoning wells and food to kill off the poor. Rioters in both attacked hospitals, doctors, nurses, and government officials. To quote just one example, At Massafra in Puglia, Italy, the old cholera myths of hospitals as death chambers for the poor persisted. Crowds of around 3,000 stormed the cholera hospital and ‘liberated’ the patients, whom they paraded triumphantly through the streets. Prominent government officials and doctors were killed, nurses were thrown out of windows, equipment was smashed and the hospital set ablaze. In India, clashes of cultures occurred between colonial soldiers and worshippers in poor districts of Calcutta or Bombay as well. The main causes for riots world over can be seen as

• Rumors - mostly related to deliberate killing of the already infected.
• Denial of medical care to the under privileged, extortion for medical treatment and disposal of the dead.
• Selective enforcement of law, differentiating between communities and classes.

 

However the mother of all, Spanish Flu of 1918-19, provoked no major riots or religious and sectarian hatred and has confounded many historians.

Will the History of Riots and Unrest Repeat?

The most misleading cliche about a pandemic is that it treats us all the same. It doesn't, neither medically nor economically, socially or psychologically. It rather exacerbates preexisting conditions of inequality. Be it the slum dwellers of Bombay in 1817 or those living in Dharavi today, the poor and the economically disadvantaged are the hardest hit because for them there’s no such thing as “social distancing,” since the whole family sleeps in one room. There’s no discussion about whether to wear masks because there aren’t any. More hand-washing is good advice, but not for them there’s no running water.

Epidemics are, by their very nature, divisive. The neighbor you might, in better times, turn to for help becomes a possible source of infection. The rituals of daily life become opportunities for transmission; the authorities enforcing quarantine become agents of oppression. It would be naive to think that, once this medical emergency is over, either individual countries or the world can carry on as before. Anger and bitterness will find new outlets. Early harbingers include millions of Brazilians banging pots and pans from their windows to protest against their government, or Lebanese prisoners rioting in their overcrowded jails. As per one record, seven out of current 16 protests worldwide are related to Coronavirus. The great pandemic of 2020 is therefore an ultimatum to those of us who reject populism.

The early indicators are already there in India too with scores of videos of discrimination and improper medical treatment being uploaded on social media. Doctors and their hospitals were extolled as heroes so far, are now coming in for criticism for discriminating and profiteering. If this behaviour persists, like earlier, they will bear the brunt of riots, if any. Still fresh in our memory is the chopping of hand of a police official who was enforcing lockdown in one state. Like the Virus, the contagion of riots also spreads and infects others to incite them into rioting. People in riots act according to their assumed social identities and do not behave mindlessly, people construct group boundaries (we are more influenced by fellow in-group members than out-group members) and the extent to which actions are in line with prevailing group norms. Hence to prevent the riot engine from starting, we should remain mindful of not targeting and oppressing any group of people in particular.

The Panacea?

The word “quarantine” comes from the Italian word “quaranta”, meaning “forty”. The earliest formal quarantines were a response to contain the Black Death in Europe between 1347 and 1351. Whenever disaster strikes, like right about now, it’s tempting to look to the past for guidance on what to do or, alternatively, what not to do. Like “quarantine” to contain spread of disease, history has enough lessons for Govts in power to stymie the unrest hydra well before passions mount and threshold of rioting is crossed. The Govt in India has done well so far in addressing the transportation issue of migrant labours, moratorium on loan repayment, Vande Bharat Mission to conduct repatriation flights for 14,800 Indian citizens stranded abroad, digitisation of transmission records with Arogya Setu App and disbursement of Rs 34,800 crore through DBT to 39 Crore Indians living BPL.

As of now there are no seething issues which can snowball into a rallying call for protests and riots but complacency should not set in and Govt should remain watchful of emerging problems. Just as there are many ways for microbes to infect a body, there are many ways for epidemics to play out in the body politic. Political masters may find many opportunities coming by to grind their own political axe. Public at large must be wise to discern and not be misled. Those involved in medical care, sanitation services and enforcement of containment and isolation measures are the most vulnerable targets. We have already seen that on news channels when medical workers where chased and stones pelted on them.